Key Takeaways
- Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon highlighted unrelenting AI chip demand, triggering a 5.1% gain in ASML shares
- Though Rasgon’s note didn’t explicitly mention ASML, market participants linked the analysis to semiconductor equipment demand
- Bank of America reaffirmed its Buy rating with a €1,598 target following discussions with Asian investors
- BofA identifies ASML as a “prime beneficiary” of expanding EUV technology and increased memory capital expenditures
- BofA’s 2028 revenue projection of €52 billion appears cautious; the firm anticipates a capital markets update later this year
ASML Holding experienced a sharp rally exceeding 5% on Monday following back-to-back optimistic assessments from prominent Wall Street analysts that renewed investor attention on the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant.
The upward momentum began with commentary from Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon. While his analysis didn’t explicitly reference ASML, equity markets quickly drew the connection.
Rasgon’s research centered on the wider AI semiconductor sector, maintaining that demand “currently shows no signs of slowing” despite this year’s volatility in AI-related equities.
He spotlighted Broadcom (AVGO) as particularly promising, projecting potential for the company to quadruple its 2025 earnings to exceed $20 per share. Nvidia (NVDA) could see earnings expand from below $5 last year to $12 or higher by 2027. ASML shares were trading near $1,369 during market hours, reflecting approximately 3.9% gains.
The Supply Chain Connection to ASML’s Growth Story
The investment logic is straightforward: escalating AI chip demand translates to higher revenues for semiconductor designers including Nvidia and Broadcom. This ripples through to manufacturing partners like TSMC, which must increase production capabilities. Capacity expansion directly requires additional equipment — precisely what ASML manufactures.
Rasgon further emphasized persistent supply bottlenecks stemming from inadequate chip manufacturing capacity. This creates an ideal backdrop for sustained demand in ASML’s lithography systems.
While ASML trades at a premium 46.5 times trailing earnings, Wall Street projects 19% compound annual earnings growth over the coming five years. If Rasgon’s AI demand forecast proves accurate, such expansion could validate current valuation levels.
Bank of America Projects Strength Through 2027 and Beyond
In parallel, Bank of America’s Didier Scemama released findings following investor consultations throughout Asia.
His central conclusion: the memory semiconductor cycle is “likely to remain strong through at least 1H27E.” This outlook bolsters ASML’s order pipeline well into the next fiscal year.
BofA outlined three critical growth drivers. First, high-NA EUV technology adoption is projected for 2028, led by TSMC and SK Hynix. Equipment availability reached 80% at 2025’s close and should hit 90% by end of 2026. Scemama forecasts 15 high-NA system deliveries in 2028.
Second, low-NA EUV capacity constraints are expected by Q4 2027, with 22 system deliveries scheduled that year. BofA suggests ASML may announce EUV capacity expansions during 2026.
Third, BofA anticipates ASML will host a capital markets presentation later this year, potentially elevating its 2030 revenue guidance to a range between €53.7 billion and €65.4 billion.
BofA’s current 2028 revenue model stands at €52 billion, which the firm characterizes as “increasingly conservative” relative to Street consensus.
Bank of America maintained its Buy recommendation and €1,598 price objective, positioning ASML as its preferred name within the semiconductor equipment space.
