Ethereum is approaching a critical sequence of resistance levels that need to break and flip to support. Van de Poppe believes the macro conditions driving the decline are about to reverse.
- ETH at $2,118.
- SMA100 at $2,155.96: $16 above the Fibonacci level, rejected price five times recently.
- Van de Poppe: ETH decline macro-driven, DeFi/bond yield correlation about to reverse.
- SMA50 at $2,264.49 and Fibonacci 0.382 at $2,263.66 confluent: double ceiling above.
- RSI at 40.04, signal at 39.16: first positive spread in visible range.
At the time of writing Ethereum is trading at $2,118, approaching two sequential resistance levels that define whether the current recovery attempt is structural or temporary. On the other hand we have Michaël van de Poppe identifiying the current zone as an accumulation area. The macro argument behind that view is more specific than the chart alone suggests.
The Two-Level Sequence the Chart Requires
The Fibonacci 0.618 at approximately $2,140 and the SMA100 at $2,155 are separated by approximately $16, meaning clearing the first level brings ETH immediately to the second, and the SMA100 that has rejected price five times in recent sessions becomes the level that must flip from resistance to support before any recovery above $2,200 can be considered structurally valid.
Both the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci labels are partially obscured on the current chart, and the figures used are read from the price axis position rather than fully legible labels. Current price sits approximately $21 below the 0.618 and $37.54 below the SMA100. The Fibonacci level is the first gate. The SMA100 is the confirmation.
The sequence matters because of how the SMA100 has behaved. Five rejections at that level in recent days means there is a cluster of sell orders and short positions concentrated there. A clean break above it on volume would force those positions to cover, adding mechanical buying pressure to any organic demand. A sixth rejection without a break would confirm the SMA100 as a ceiling the current momentum cannot clear.
One structural detail the chart adds beyond the immediate two-level sequence: the SMA50 at $2,264.49 sits within $0.83 of the Fibonacci 0.382 at $2,263.66. These two levels form a near-identical confluence above the SMA100, meaning any recovery that clears the SMA100 and the 0.5 at $2,201.81 immediately runs into a double resistance ceiling where the declining SMA50 and the Fibonacci retracement level overlap.
Below current price, the Fibonacci 0.786 at approximately $2,052 is the next structural support if the recovery fails. RSI at 40.04 with its signal at 39.16 shows a 0.88-point spread with RSI barely above signal, the narrowest positive spread in the visible chart range and the first indication that selling momentum may be exhausting without yet confirming a reversal.
Why Van de Poppe Says This Is the Area to Accumulate
Van de Poppe’s macro argument is the most specific element of his accumulation thesis: the negative correlation between DeFi and government bond yields means the recent ETH decline is not a failure of the protocol but a mechanical response to a macro condition he believes is about to reverse, which is a different kind of buy signal than a chart pattern because it identifies a cause rather than a symptom.
This is the area to accumulate #Ethereum.
It’s been lagging behind for years, but it’s the infrastructure layer that is required for almost everything within the on-chain ecosystem.
The past months, the price of Ethereum has gone down primarily due to macroeconomic reasons.… pic.twitter.com/o3yUKvycPP
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 25, 2026
His framing is direct: ETH has declined primarily due to macroeconomic reasons rather than intrinsic Web3 events, and when bond yields compress, capital returns to DeFi infrastructure, with ETH as the primary beneficiary.
He also frames ETH as the infrastructure layer required for almost everything in the on-chain ecosystem, noting it has lagged for years while still being foundational. On the ETH/BTC chart, he has been targeting the current support level since the rejection at 0.0325 BTC, and describes building a position in the current range as “not a bad place to start.” The source uses hedged language throughout and does not specify a price target or timeframe.
The Tom Lee and BitMine Connection
Recently Tom Lee identified BitMine (BMNR) on FTSE Russell’s preliminary Russell 1000 inclusion list.
His disclosure is not just a stock market story. If confirmed, index funds and ETFs would be required to purchase BMNR as a constituent, bringing 20-25% of the company’s market cap under passive institutional ownership without any active decision to buy Ethereum. That inflow would strengthen BMNR’s balance sheet and expand its access to capital markets through equity issuance and debt, giving the world’s largest public corporate Ethereum holder the financial capacity to acquire more ETH on top of the 5,278,462 it already holds.
FTSE Russell published their preliminary index inclusions and deletions
– Bitmine is on this list for inclusion for large-cap Russell 1000
– $BMNR market cap above the minimum $5.7B for large-cap inclusion
– Many active managers only buy equities on the Russell 1000… pic.twitter.com/bNDXM9jwhk— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com (@fundstrat) May 23, 2026
A company that enters the Russell 1000 with 4.37% of Ethereum’s total supply and then uses the capital access that index inclusion provides to add to that position would be compounding an already unprecedented concentration of institutional ETH ownership. The chart question and the corporate treasury question are pointing at the same asset at the same time.
A daily close above the SMA100 on expanding volume within the next three sessions would confirm the two-level sequence has resolved upward and open the path toward the 0.5 at $2,201.81 and then the SMA50/0.382 confluence at approximately $2,264. A rejection at either the 0.618 or the SMA100 with RSI falling back below its signal line would confirm the selling pressure at those levels has not yet been absorbed and the 0.786 at approximately $2,052 becomes the next support test.
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