While renewed concerns over energy supply disruptions have helped lift oil prices, gold is also drawing renewed attention as traders evaluate whether safe-haven demand can push the precious metal toward the key $4,100 resistance zone. At the same time, ongoing technical weakness suggests that bullion still faces important hurdles before a sustained recovery can develop.
U.S.-Iran conflict raises concerns over global oil supply
The latest escalation began after the U.S. military carried out fresh strikes on multiple Iranian military targets, including surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air-defense sites, drone storage facilities, and mine-laying capabilities. Washington said the operation was conducted in response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial oil tanker transiting near the Strait of Hormuz.
Bahrain and Kuwait condemned Iran’s retaliatory drone and missile attacks launched in response to renewed U.S. airstrikes near the Strait of Hormuz. Source: @AJEnglish via X
Iran responded by launching missile and drone attacks targeting military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, both of which host significant U.S. military assets. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for striking eight U.S. military sites, describing the operation as retaliation for recent American attacks on Iranian facilities.
Kuwait said its air defenses intercepted several drones and missiles, reporting no casualties or major damage. Bahrain confirmed that debris from the attacks damaged a residential building near its international airport but said there were no fatalities.
The latest exchange marks another setback for diplomatic efforts aimed at preserving the ceasefire agreement brokered earlier this month.
Strait of Hormuz returns to the center of market attention
The renewed conflict has once again shifted investor focus to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important energy corridors.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated Tehran’s position that Iran must continue overseeing maritime traffic through the waterway.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran retains sole responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S. and Iran prepare for talks in Qatar aimed at easing tensions over the strategic waterway. Source: @AJEnglish via X
The Strait of Hormuz historically handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Any disruption to shipping through the narrow passage has the potential to tighten global energy supplies and increase transportation costs.
A multinational maritime organization overseen by the U.S. Navy has expanded shipping routes near Oman to facilitate commercial traffic, noting that U.S.-assisted transits continue despite the heightened security risks.
However, vessel traffic remains below historical averages, highlighting continued caution among shipping companies operating in the region.
Oil prices find support as geopolitical premium returns
The renewed military activity has restored a geopolitical risk premium to crude oil markets after prices had eased following the initial ceasefire announcement.
Investors remain concerned that additional attacks on commercial vessels or further disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reduce available global supply, particularly if shipping activity slows or insurance costs continue to rise.
USOIL is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, with the $69.80 level identified as a key volume-based support zone. Source: Path_Of_Hanzo on TradingView
Beyond the immediate conflict, several analysts have pointed to tightening physical market conditions.
Market observers note that U.S. benchmark WTI crude continues to trade near $69-70 per barrel despite increasing concerns surrounding inventories. Industry commentary has highlighted historically elevated refining margins, declining inventories at the Cushing storage hub, and a shrinking U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve as factors that could amplify any future supply disruptions.
Separately, the Trump administration recently invoked national security provisions to accelerate Gulf of Mexico drilling activities, a move widely viewed as an effort to strengthen domestic production amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
Although these developments do not guarantee higher oil prices, they illustrate how governments are increasingly prioritizing energy security as geopolitical risks intensify.
Gold price approaches major technical resistance
While oil has reacted primarily to supply concerns, gold prices have benefited from renewed demand for defensive assets.
After experiencing a sharp correction from record highs earlier this year, gold recovered strongly into the end of last week and is now approaching a major technical resistance zone around $4,090-$4,100, according to TradingView market analysis.
Gold rebounded after a sharp decline but ended Friday near the key $4,090-$4,100 resistance zone, where analysts see limited upside unless a breakout occurs. Source: AdilHussain731333 on TradingView
The area coincides with daily and weekly resistance levels that traders are monitoring closely.
Market analyst Adil Hussain noted that gold remains vulnerable below this zone, stating that traders should “keep close and short below” resistance while considering a bullish reversal only if price establishes a confirmed move above $4,098.
The setup suggests that the market has reached an important decision point where both geopolitical headlines and technical confirmation could influence the next major move.
Technical indicators still favor caution
Despite the recent rebound, TradingView’s broader technical indicators continue to reflect a cautious outlook for XAU/USD.
Gold is currently trading near $4,058, down roughly 0.7% on the session and well below its January record high above $5,600.
The platform’s overall daily technical summary remains neutral with a bearish bias, generating 15 Sell signals, 10 Neutral signals and only one Buy signal.
Gold price chart. Source: TradingView
Moving averages present an even weaker picture. Nearly every major moving average—from the 10-day through the 200-day period—continues to issue sell signals as prices remain below key trend levels. The only notable exception is the Hull Moving Average, which has turned positive and suggests limited short-term recovery potential.
Momentum indicators also remain mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) stands at 36.08, indicating weakening momentum but stopping short of oversold territory. The MACD continues to flash a sell signal at -118.82, while the Momentum (10) indicator also remains negative. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 41.65, suggesting the prevailing trend retains considerable strength.
Oscillators overall remain largely neutral, implying that while downside momentum has slowed, there is not yet sufficient evidence to confirm a sustained bullish reversal.
Geopolitical developments likely to remain the primary catalyst
Looking ahead, traders are expected to monitor developments surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations alongside military activity across the Gulf region.
Pakistan, which has acted as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, has indicated that technical discussions between both sides remain scheduled despite the renewed exchange of attacks. Negotiators continue working on issues including maritime security, sanctions relief, Iranian port access and the future of Tehran’s enriched uranium stockpile.
However, additional military escalation could quickly overshadow diplomatic progress.
For commodity markets, the balance between geopolitical risk and technical positioning remains critical. Oil prices continue to respond primarily to concerns over physical supply, while gold traders are weighing safe-haven demand against a technically bearish market structure.
With gold now testing resistance near $4,100 and crude oil once again sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, investors are likely to remain focused on headlines from the Middle East as the next phase of the conflict unfolds.