Markets are bracing for impact as renewed fears of a global trade war swirl. A tariff announcement from US President Donald Trump, slated for April 2 could send shockwaves through risk assets — and set the tone for Bitcoin’s path in the weeks ahead.
This isn’t Trump’s first swing at protectionism. His initial round of China-focused tariffs was announced on January 20 — the day he stepped into the Oval Office. Since then, risk markets have been noticeably skittish. Bitcoin is down 18%, while the S&P 500 has shed more than 7% in the two months following that initial salvo.
After regaining $100K in January, Bitcoin is down to $84 and looking shaky. Source: BNC Bitcoin Liquid Index
On March 29, The Washington Post reported that Trump had pushed senior aides to take a harder line on trade, signaling a possible escalation in the already tense tariff rhetoric. Sources suggest that any April 2 announcement will unveil retaliatory trade measures against key US partners — a move aimed at shrinking the country’s $1.2 trillion goods trade deficit and reigniting domestic manufacturing.
Risk-Off Vibes Hit Crypto — But the Whales Keep Swimming
Tariff fears and broader macro jitters have dulled investors’ appetite for risk. But not everyone is retreating. Bitcoin whales — those elusive holders of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC — are still buying the dip. Other coins such as XRP, and Litecoin, also continue to attract inflows ahead of likely XRP ETF approvals.
Since the start of 2025, whale wallet counts have inched up from 1,956 to 1,990, according to blockchain data firm Glassnode. While still below the February 2024 cycle peak of 2,370 addresses, the uptick shows that deep-pocketed players are quietly accumulating.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, wrote on X that, “People want to save in Bitcoin instead of cash. Increasingly, corporations do too. They have $5 trillion of cash.”
Horsley noted that if the top 10 companies swapped just 5% of their cash for BTC, we’d see $40B in BTC inflows.
The potential for Bitcoin inflows remains vast, as more companies slowly put Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Source: X
ETF Momentum Stalls, But Bulls Eye Long-Term Targets
That 10-day ETF inflow streak? It came to a screeching halt on March 28. Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETF saw $93 million in outflows that day, while other issuers posted a flatline, according to Farside Investors. Not exactly bullish — but not a mass exodus either.
Still, long-term sentiment remains resilient. Analysts are calling for a potential surge to $160K–$180K by late 2025, as Bitcoin’s halving tailwinds meet structural demand from ETFs and institutional players. Bitwise has made a Bitcoin price prediction of $200,000 in 2025.
And let’s not forget: even in choppy macro conditions, Bitcoin has a habit of doing its own thing — especially when fiat systems look wobbly and inflation fears rear their head.
That 10-day ETF inflow streak came to an end, source: Farside