According to analyst CryptoKaleo, Bitcoin’s last parabolic rally didn’t begin until after the S&P 500 fully recovered from the COVID-19 crash and broke into new all-time highs.
With the U.S. stock index now on the verge of another breakout—this time following tariff-driven uncertainty—Kaleo believes Bitcoin could soon follow suit and significantly outperform.
In a post on X, the analyst emphasized that history may repeat:
“The S&P500 is once again on the verge of breaking out to new all-time highs – this time after the tariffs scare… I believe we see history repeat itself, and as equities break out – Bitcoin does the same and significantly outperforms.”
Chart Comparison Highlights 2020 Pattern
The chart shared in the post overlays BTC (blue) and the S&P 500 (orange) from 2019 to 2025. It highlights how Bitcoin’s breakout in late 2020 aligned closely with the moment the S&P 500 entered price discovery territory post-COVID crash. Kaleo suggests we may be seeing a similar setup now.
If the correlation holds, Bitcoin’s next major upward move could be triggered by a confirmed equities breakout, just as in the last cycle.
This analysis adds to a growing narrative that macro market recovery and risk-on sentiment are key precursors to renewed crypto momentum.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.