Bitcoin may be setting up for a strong year-end rally, with analysts suggesting average gains of around 44% in the final quarter could push prices toward $160,000 by Christmas.
Network economist Timothy Peterson shared research this week showing that historically, Bitcoin has delivered positive returns in Q4 roughly 70% of the time. “Exactly four months until Christmas. How does Bitcoin fare during this time? Up 70% of the time. Average gain +44%,” he wrote on X.
That level of upside would see BTC/USD climb from its current $111,148 to around $160,000 by late December, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data.
September: Traditionally Bitcoin’s Weakest Month
While September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month—never finishing more than 8% higher—Peterson remains optimistic. He argued that several past years, such as 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2022, were outliers and not directly comparable to current conditions. Excluding those, the data skews toward “positive yet less volatile performance.”
Traders See Long-Term Upside
Other analysts are also downplaying Bitcoin’s recent weakness, which pushed prices to their lowest levels since early July. Trader Donny noted that Bitcoin is “frontrunning” the usual September dip, comparing current action to the 2017 bull market.
He also highlighted Bitcoin’s tendency to mirror gold’s trajectory after periods of lag, a correlation that has remained intact in recent years.
With institutional flows steady and macro uncertainty still favoring hard assets, many see the current pullback as a pause before a potential Q4 rally—keeping the possibility of a $160,000 Bitcoin by Christmas on the table.
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