Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe argues that financial markets may have already peaked in December 2024 and are now forming a bottom, setting the stage for a stronger bull cycle in 2026 and 2027.
Key Takeaways:
- Markets likely peaked in December 2024 and may be bottoming now.
- Crypto is increasingly tied to macro cycles and treated as a high-risk asset.
- Liquidity and business cycle indicators suggest a potential upward turn.
- Gold volatility, US yields, and Fed policy are critical variables to monitor.
According to his macro-based framework, crypto no longer moves in isolation. Instead, it behaves as a high-beta risk-on asset, closely tied to broader economic conditions, liquidity cycles, and the business cycle. That shift, he says, explains why 2025 has felt confusing and disappointing for many investors despite strong underlying fundamentals.
Liquidity and Business Cycle at Critical Levels
Van de Poppe points to historical patterns showing that when liquidity conditions and the business cycle reach depressed levels, risk assets tend to reverse higher. His chart suggests the business cycle is currently at one of its weakest points in more than a decade – a phase that has previously aligned with market bottoms.
The extended downturn in altcoins and the lack of broad euphoria in crypto markets support this view. While 2024 delivered selective gains – including strong memecoin activity – liquidity never expanded aggressively. As a result, the rally remained narrow rather than explosive.
Why Prices Have Lagged Fundamentals
Despite vertical growth in stablecoin adoption and expanding blockchain usage, price action has failed to reflect the narrative. Van de Poppe compares the current setup to 2019-2020, when adoption metrics surged while assets like Ethereum remained flat – until they suddenly accelerated.
He argues that capital rotation explains much of the disconnect. Asset managers have recently favored gold and silver amid heightened volatility. To balance portfolio risk, they reduced exposure to other risk assets, including crypto. Once volatility in precious metals stabilizes, capital could rotate back into higher-risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Gold, Yields and the Fed: Key Signals to Watch
Van de Poppe identifies several macro triggers that could confirm a new upward phase:
- A slowdown or drop in gold and silver volatility, allowing capital to rotate into Bitcoin.
- Weak US economic data leading to lower yields and potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
- Declining Japanese bond yields, easing global liquidity pressures.
He believes these variables are approaching favorable territory. Importantly, he notes that Bitcoin has not yet shown signs of mania or euphoric blow-off behavior. In his view, that suggests the cycle’s ceiling has expanded rather than contracted.
A Raised Ceiling for the Next Cycle
Another notable point in his thesis is that gold’s recent rally has effectively lifted the valuation ceiling for Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin has tracked gold’s macro behavior with higher volatility. If gold stabilizes after its surge, Bitcoin could follow with amplified momentum.
While he acknowledges that the coming months will be decisive, the broader conclusion is optimistic. With liquidity near cyclical lows and risk appetite suppressed, the setup resembles prior inflection points that preceded powerful multi-year advances.
Van de Poppe summarizes the moment with a classic market principle: when fear dominates and positioning is light, opportunity often emerges.
At the time of writing BTC is trading around the $66,000 level after the crypto market slump regained momentum earlier today.
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