Ted Hisokawa
Jun 22, 2026 00:05
For the week ending June 13, initial jobless claims fell to 226,000 and unemployment stayed at 4.3%, as the Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17 and lifted its end-2026 median to 3.8%.
Fed Rate Cuts 2026: “0 (0 bps)” Holds 80.85% on Polymarket After Hawkish Fed Signal and Firm Jobs Data
A run of resilient U.S. labor data and a more hawkish Federal Reserve signal has tightened expectations for policy easing, reinforcing the market view that 2026 could pass without rate cuts. On Polymarket, the “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” ladder continues to price “0 (0 bps)” as the dominant outcome at 80.85%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices “0 (0 bps)” as the leading outcome at 80.85% implied odds.
- Traders leaned toward fewer cuts after labor data stayed firm alongside a hawkish Fed outlook that kept easing expectations restrained.
- The market resolves on 2026-12-31, with the leading outcome down from 82.1% on the latest reading.
Weekly initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 226,000 for the week ending June 13, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3% for a third consecutive month. Bitcoin slid below $64,000, down nearly 3% on the day, after reaching an intraday high of $66,315 the prior afternoon, as stronger labor conditions weighed on expectations for easier financial conditions. Continuing claims rose by 24,000 to about 1.81 million, the highest in nearly three months, and the average duration of unemployment increased to 11.6 weeks, the longest since late 2021. The Federal Open Market Committee held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% at its June 17 meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, while its median projection for end-2026 moved up to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. The Fed also raised its year-end PCE inflation forecast to 3.6% from 2.7% as May CPI printed at 4.2%, with traders watching upcoming CPI, PCE, payrolls and claims data for further direction on the policy path.
Polymarket Odds and Liquidity: $37.25M Matched as “0 Cuts” Leads 80.85% vs 19.15%, With “1 Cut” at 13.5%
Polymarket shows heavy conviction in the low-cut end of the 2026 ladder, with $37,253,726 matched and “0 (0 bps)” at 80.85% Yes versus 19.15% No. The next rung, “1 (25 bps),” is priced at 13.5% Yes and 86.5% No, indicating limited appetite for even a single cut. Farther out, “2 (50 bps)” trades at 2.25% Yes / 97.75% No and “3 (75 bps)” at 0.95% Yes / 99.05% No, underscoring how thin the market is for multiple-cut scenarios into the 2026-12-31 resolution.
Watch whether pricing shifts away from “0 (0 bps)” and toward the “1 (25 bps)” rung as new trading flow tests the current 80%+ consensus ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution.
Beyond Fed Cuts: Other High-Volume Macro and Geopolitical Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching
Beyond the longer-dated rate-cut ladder, traders are also clustering around nearer-term policy and risk-on catalysts across Polymarket. In “Fed Decision in July?”, “No change” leads at 75.5% with $15,287,601 in volume, while the corporate calendar is drawing attention in “Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?”, where “SpaceX” tops the board at 86.0% on $2,796,595 traded—signals that macro positioning is being paired with bets on headline corporate events.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.2 |
| 7d | +2.2 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$37,253,726
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 80.8% | 19.1% |
| 1 (25 bps) | 13.5% | 86.5% |
| 2 (50 bps) | 2.2% | 97.8% |
| 3 (75 bps) | 0.9% | 99.0% |
+9 more strikes not shown
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Sources
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