Joerg Hiller
Jun 19, 2026 00:03
On Wednesday, June 17, the US and Iran signed an agreement to end their war, with the White House saying it’s in effect and includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though timing is unclear.
US-Iran War-Ending Agreement Reopens Hormuz Talks: Polymarket Attendee Odds Slide Ahead of Switzerland Meeting
The US and Iran signed an agreement on June 17 to end their war and said it includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though timing for restored access remains unclear. On Polymarket’s “Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?” contract, odds have shifted lower for some named attendees as traders recalibrated expectations around who will show up to formalize the deal.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket’s top-priced attendee is Steve Witkoff at 22.0% (Yes 22.0% / No 78.0%), with Donald Trump at 5.95% (Yes 5.95% / No 94.05%).
- After news the US and Iran sealed an agreement and implementation talks were still set for Switzerland, pricing in the attendee field moved, with the leading outcome at 22.0%.
- The market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-07 23:59 UTC, and the leading outcome odds are down 28.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours.
The US and Iran signed an agreement on Wednesday, June 17, aimed at ending their war after more than three months of fighting. The White House said the deal is in effect and includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade corridor, but it was unclear when access would actually be restored. Attention is now focused on a meeting in Switzerland on Friday for initial negotiations on implementing the agreement, according to the Swiss government. The report described shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Musandam, Oman, in a photo dated April 18, 2026.
Polymarket “US-Iran Signing Ceremony Attendees” Hits $414,770 Volume as Steve Witkoff Leads at 22% (Down 28.5 Points)
On Polymarket, the “Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?” market had $414,770 in volume, with the top outcome priced at 22.0% Yes / 78.0% No for Steve Witkoff. Abbas Araghchi was next at 18.5% Yes / 81.5% No, followed by JD Vance at 12.5% Yes / 87.5% No and Jared Kushner at 11.5% Yes / 88.5% No. Lower down the board, Donald Trump traded at 5.95% Yes / 94.05% No and Masoud Pezeshkian at 5.65% Yes / 94.35% No, indicating a fragmented field with no dominant favorite priced above the low-20s.
Watch for further shifts in the top tier of the attendee field into the July 7, 2026 resolution deadline, especially whether the leading outcome consolidates above the low-20% range or the market continues to split across multiple names.
Beyond US-Iran: Other High-Volume Geopolitical Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching Now
Beyond the Middle East docket, Polymarket traders are also clustering into a handful of high-liquidity geopolitical and political contracts that reflect broader risk sentiment across Washington and beyond. “What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?” shows “Oil Sanction Relief” at 100.0% on $7,045,081 in volume, while domestic politics remain a major draw with “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” pricing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49.0% on $660,908,349 and “Presidential Election Winner 2028” putting JD Vance at 16.75% on $632,156,909. Another flashpoint contract, “US military action against Cuba by…?”, has “December 31” at 51.5% on $6,436,644, underscoring how quickly attention can rotate across theaters.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -28.5 |
| 7d | -28.5 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Jul 07, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$414,770
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Witkoff | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| Abbas Araghchi | 18.5% | 81.5% |
| JD Vance | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Jared Kushner | 11.5% | 88.5% |
+16 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
Sources
Image source: Shutterstock